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DENVER-The Denver — and nation’s — commercial real estate markets won’t recover as soon as many believe. That’s the projection of Denver-based Rick Pederson, chairman of the Ross Consulting Group, which is tied to the Frederick Ross Co.

Pederson has traveled the world providing analysis, development advice and other services to clients.

Commercial real estate likely won’t recover until 2003, says Pederson, not as fast as the general economy.

”I know a lot of people are anxious to see a ‘V’ shaped recovery in the economy,” which calls for a sharp recovery following the sharp decline, Pederson told GlobeSt.com following a speech he gave at the Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo DU Economic Forecast. The event was attended by a record 1,000 commercial real estate leaders at the Colorado Convention Center.

”My worry is that the commercial real estate economy will lag the recovery in the general economy,” Pederson tells GlobeSt.com. The stock market could enter a bull market long before commercial real estate benefits, he adds.

”Companies need to produce earnings before they add jobs and they need to add jobs before they need new real estate,” Pederson says.

His outlook for Colorado’s commercial real estate reflects soft national conditions, he says. He expects Colorado’s growth to slow to 1.5% by the end of 2002, ”while we’re just about at 3% growth year to date.”

Office buildings will lose 15% in value from their asking prices, and homes will drop 7% to 9% from their top, he says. Overall vacancy rates will rise to 15%, and apartment, retail and industrial vacancies will rise to the 8% to 10% level, he says.

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