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SAN FRANCISCO-Using a model comprised of the Federal Reserve Board’s manufacturing output data and a proprietary algorithm, San Francisco-based industrial REIT AMB Property Corp. is predicting that the positive net absorption that occurred in the third quarter nationally will continue for two more quarters.

AMB’s forecasts 43 million sf of positive net absorption in the U.S. for fourth quarter 2002. In the third quarter, ended Sept. 30, there was 14.3 million sf of positive net absorption, according to Torto Wheaton Research.

The first quarter of 2003 will be positive as well, according to the forecast, but not by much. Net absorption of less than 1 million sf is projected during the first quarter of 2003.

“While we don’t interpret our newest positive absorption forecasts as a signal of an imminent strong recovery, we do feel that the worst is over,” says David C. Twist, the director of research for AMB.

As to the credibility of the forecast, AMB says that back in May its Industrial Absorption Indicator predicted the third quarter’s positive net absorption, which followed six quarters of negative net absorption.

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