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Wall of Capital

I attended the Real Estate Roundtable’s State of the Industry meeting last week in Washington, DC. The best way to summarize the mood of the conference was cautious, with continuing concerns over the spreading credit crisis and growing fear of recession. However, the most significant takeaway for me was a general, and what appears to be emerging, view that the current stalemate between buyers and sellers will loosen during the second half, and trades will resume in real estate markets that are still, for the most part, in balance. One of the panelists made the point that there is a growing “wall of capital” that is going to flood into the market once the standoff is broken. In addition, I’ve learned from a number of fund managers that there is also a lot of smart money gearing up to fill in the credit gap with new debt funds. My take on the situation is that, in the second half of ’08, today’s uncertainty will yield to an active investment market fueled by a boatload of pent-up capital.

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