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Is this the turn in the downcycle I’ve been waiting for? Well, I got a note from one of the loudest naysayers I interview every year for Emerging Trends. This gentleman has been warning me since 2004 of the imminent demise of the market — “amateurs overpaying,”  “people who do not know what they are doing,”  “crazy flipping and  too much leverage.”  He said he couldn’t buy in the market, but was happy to sell, and he says he seized gains well above his projections even though property NOIs underperformed his proformas. So here’s what Mr. Pessimism writes me today:

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