X

Thank you for sharing!

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

ARE YOU SEEING RENT GROWTH?

We’re going for a three-fer this week. The Quick Poll Question–Are You Seeing Rent Growth?–came from the annual Executive Forum that Real Estate Forum conducts in conjunction with Transwestern. So it seems only fair we go to three of the panelists to answer it. As for our readers, well, the majority is taking a pass, with 51% of the 206 respondents telling us to Get Back to Me in Six Months. Some 28% claim that there is rent growth, but Slower. And a lucky 21% state that it’s the Same or Better Than Last Year. Here’s how the Exec Forum panel weighed in:

Victoria KahnING Clarion“We used to do as Nate does now: grow rents at inflationary rates unless there was a particular reason to change that assumption. Given that GDP is slowing, I think rents are going to grow only about 1% this year. That’s the forecast. Rental-rate growth has got to slow, and we’re all doing even more due diligence in our underwriting than we collectively did before. We’re studying rent growth very, very carefully because capital appreciation may or may not be there, depending on what happens with the economy.”

Nathaniel DalyJPMorgan Asset Management“We’re definitely seeing it, but it has decelerated over the past six to 12 months. There’s rent growth across all property types, and we are particularly bullish about markets on the West Coast and Washington, DC, but our underwriting is going to be more inflationary over the next year or two than in the past.”

Peter FeinbergRreef“In addition to the increased competition and the low cost of capital, it’s one of the top reasons why cap rates went as low as they did. People were saying, “I’m happy to pay a six, five or four cap as long as there’s rent growth and I get to a nice, stabilized number in years two, three and four.” As rent growth decelerates, which it’s clearly doing, it seems to me there would be pressure on cap rates. There’s also pressure from the higher cost of debt capital. Rent growth differs from market to market. As long as demand keeps up, which is harder to underwrite because of the economy, we should still see some rent growth.”

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 3 free articles* across the ALM subscription network every 30 days
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

Dig Deeper

GlobeSt

Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2020 ALM Media Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved.