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Well, what do know–we have consensus. Everyone from the Fed Chairman to Reaganomics-shill Larry Kudlow seem to accept we’re in a recession. Now the discussion shifts to how long and how deep. The Wall Street establishment and Republican “no new taxes” crowd look for any bright signs and suggest we’ll be on the upswing by the time of the political conventions in the late summer. The stock market rally from late January depths suggests such a rebound could be coming just as the unemployment rate starts tracking up and jobs formation goes negative.

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