Thank you for sharing!

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.


Last week’s poll addressed the lessons to be learned from the current real estate slump. 75% of respondents said the downturn teaches us that cycles always rule, while 23% said it’s still too early to tell what is to be learned. Only 2% of respondents said the downturn would make the industry bulletproof. Bill Moss, senior managing director of Florida for CB Richard Ellis, has been involved in commercial real estate for nearly 30 years, and has seen worse slumps in the past. He shares his views about the current market downturn below.

“This slump validates the cyclical nature of the real estate industry, which has been characteristic for the last 40 years, and probably longer. The reasons that we go into these slumps is usually some combination of liquidity challenges when the capital markets become unsettled as far as their appetite for commercial real estate; slowing economic conditions, which decrease the demand; and in some cases, overbuilding.

“We’ve had a real estate slump in the early part of each decade, from the 1970s to early 2000s, and this one is not quite fitting in to the early part of the decade. The worst slump was in the early 1990s, and this will be far less severe.

“From a commercial real estate standpoint, the current slump that we’re in is focused primarily on liquidity challenges and slowing economic activity. The capital challenges were being hit by the shrapnel coming out of the single-family residential problems. We are in a slowdown from an activity standpoint, but I would not see it as a crisis based on the cyclical nature of the industry. This is one cycle that we will probably come out of in the next six to 18 months.

“The important part is the commercial real estate markets are in fundamentally good shape. We have a good balance of supply and demand, and stable market conditions. I don’t think Florida, nor the rest of the county, is in any kind of severe situation. I think we will come out of this slump as the capital markets stabilize.

“I’ve been in commercial real estate for 30 years, and can say neither the good times nor the bad times last as long as everybody thinks they will.”

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 3 free articles* across the ALM subscription network every 30 days
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

Dig Deeper


Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2020 ALM Media Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved.