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Last week’s GlobeSt.com Quick Poll asked readers if the presidential election has a big impact on the commercial real estate industry. A total of 75% of voters responded that it does. David Sobelman, executive vice president of Calkain Companies Inc. in Tampa and a member of Real Estate Florida’s editorial advisory board, tells GlobeSt.com about the changes he thinks the industry may see as a result of the presidential election.

“I don’t think the election will have an impact on our industry in the near term. I think it will take a couple of years for the new policies to be instituted, and then we’ll see some change.

“The last several years we’ve seen an influx of transaction volume from investors who are doing 1031 exchanges, even though our long-term capital gains rate is 15%, which is the lowest that it has been since its creation in the 1930s. President-elect Obama has explained that the long-term capital gains rate will increase during his presidency, possibly as high as 28%.

“My opinion is that an influx of capital will go into commercial real estate and subsequently stay in real estate through the IRS 1031 exchange code, since most investors will not want to pay the increased rate. I feel that commercial real estate investment volume will increase dramatically in 2010, the year in which the rate can be changed.”

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