X

Thank you for sharing!

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

NEW YORK CITY-Sales in the major food groups across the US this spring have shown either an uptick or a leveling-off in decline, according to Real Capital Analytics. At the same time, however, troubled assets are on the rise.

RCA says troubled commercial properties have more than doubled as of the end of May, with the value of assets in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy now exceeding $107 billion; $56 billion of that total is new this year. T.S. Eliot once called April “the cruelest month,” and thanks largely to the bankruptcy of General Growth Properties, that has proven to be the case in commercial real estate, with April adding a record $19.5 billion in distressed assets. Much of that total was due to the bankruptcy of General Growth Properties, an event that RCA says accounted for $13.5 billion of the April total.

When GGP is removed from the equation, April and May averaged $5.5 billion of new distressed assets per month. However, RCA says June is shaping up to be “among the worst of the year,” with more than $10 billion in newly defaulted mortgages already recorded for the month.

Most troubled of all sectors is hotels in terms of both the number of newly added troubled assets (894) and YTD increase (216%), RCA says. The bankruptcy of Extended Stay Hotels is a major factor. In retail, the dollar totals are higher–$17.8 billion added YTD and $31.2 billion total–but the YTD increase is lower at 133%.

Office and industrial distress are fairly evenly matched in terms of growth; both have increased by 118% YTD, although industrial is proceeding from a far smaller base: a total of $2.5 billion for distressed industrial compared to $16.4 billion for office. “Trouble for development sites is starting to moderate as many shaky land deals have already gone bad,” RCA says in its June Capital Trends Monthly.

If there’s anything more disconcerting than the rapid rate of growth in distress totals, it’s what RCA calls “the very modest rate” at which troubled situations are being resolved. Although $60.5 billion of troubled assets have been added YTD, just $4.1 billion have been resolved this year. “In far more situations, modifications and short-term extensions are being granted, but these can hardly be considered resolved, only delayed,” according to RCA.

Looking at the sales picture, RCA says sales of significant office properties in May were up 70% from the previous month. That spike is less dramatic than it might seem, given the low volume of sales, but RCA calls it “welcome” nonetheless. Dollar volume rose over April, with 30 properties trading at $5 million or more, including four properties and one portfolio that traded at levels above $50 million each.

Since February, sales of both CBD and suburban office properties have stabilized at a 70% year-over-year rate of decline. “This conformity suggests that transaction volume is likely at its low point, and hopefully the rise in deals under contract signals that it is poised to reverse direction,” according to RCA.

Also up on a month-to-month basis are industrial sales, although RCA says the transactions market’s monthly average of $440 million is “a fraction of its former self.” Slightly higher on a monthly basis were apartment sales, although the $481 million hat closed in May was off 46% from April and marked the slowest month in this sector since RCA began keeping count. A smaller percentage decline was seen in retail property sales, but with the month managing just $418 million in transactions, it was one of the slowest on record.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 1 free article* every 30 days across the ALM subscription network
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

GlobeSt

Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2021 ALM Media Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved.