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OAKLAND, CA-The total commercial mortgage delinquency rate rose to 4.5% in the second quarter, up from 3.6% in the first quarter and more than doubling since the first quarter of 2008, according to advance estimates by Foresight Analytics, a locally based company that provides national real estate analysis and projections. Final figures for the second quarter 2009 are due out in late August, but Foresight provides the advance estimates based on earnings reports and call report filings from many banks.

The new report shows that the estimated increase in commercial delinquencies of 90 basis points during the second quarter followed a 90-basis-point rise in Q1 2009 and a rise of 60 basis points in Q4 2008. Foresight expects the delinquency rate to continue to rise through 2009, according to Matt Anderson, a principal at the Oakland-based firm.

Foresight’s latest report notes that the current 4.5% delinquency rate is still well below the 8% delinquency rate in Q3 1991. However, the firm describes the current rate as “worrisome in light of an eroding economy, severely constrained credit availability and a high volume of commercial mortgages coming due during 2009 and the next several years.”

The new report shows that construction lending delinquencies jumped to an estimated 17.1% in the second quarter, up from 14.5% in the first quarter. This rate is the highest since the first quarter of 1993 but is still below the 19.2% peak of early 1992.

Foresight’s estimates indicate that, while single family and condo construction loans are by far the main source of problems, delinquency rates are rising for other construction sectors, including apartments and commercial properties. “Worsening fundamentals and reduced liquidity in the commercial real estate sector will likely contribute to further rises in the delinquency rate,” the company says.

Total delinquencies for first-lien single-family mortgages rose to an estimated 10.2% during the second quarter, up from 9.4% in the first quarter of 2009 and 5.5% in the second quarter 2008. The report notes that the surge in delinquencies of 90 days or longer that began in the fourth quarter of 2008, persisted during the first quarter of 2009, “complicating our attempt to estimate overall delinquencies, according to the report.

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