French Investment Recovery Expected in 2010

PARIS-French property investment should recover slightly to around $14.8 billion in 2010 from the low point of $10.1 billion last year, according to a survey of institutional investors by Investment Property Databank and the Paris Ile-de-France regional development agency.

This would push investment up to near its 2008 level but leave it well below the boom year of 2007′s $36 billion. German funds, insurance companies and other European non-listed funds are expected to be the most active investors this year. Yields are forecast to decline, with prime yields on central Paris office space predicted to ease to 5.40% at end-2010 from 5.65% currently and 5.80% at the time of the previous survey in November. Logistics yields are seen easing to 7.60% from 7.80% currently, but retail yields are not expected to decline further from present levels of around 5.60%.

The panel expects a further slight fall in take-up in the Ile-de-France office market, to around 18.3 million square feet this year from 19.4 million square feet last year and 25.8 million square feet in 2008, with the vacancy rate rising to 8.1% from 6.8%. Rents are therefore forecast to decline to around $79.81 per square foot in Paris CBD at end-2010 from $85.47 currently. Logistics rents should slide 4.5% to $66.76, after take-up in this sector almost halved to 10.8 million square feet in 2009 and no significant recovery is seen. Shopping center rents are forecast to fall by 7% as retailers seek to reduce costs following last year’s decline in sales.

The IPD/ARD (Agence Regionale de Developpement Paris Ile-de-France) survey is based on responses from institutional investors with AUM around $133.5 billion. The group is surveyed three times a year and the next survey will be published in June.