There will be a lack of capital which will lead to lower values.
By Joel Ross|September 06, 2010 at 11:00 PM
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Over 250 small and midsized banks have been closed and it is possible another 300-500 could get closed or merged over the next two years. Some of the big aggressive banks like Wachovia, Countrywide, Colonial, Freemont and Corus are gone. Capmark is gone, I Star is still stabilizing, and CIT and others are essentially gone. CMBS may be slowly returning, but it will be a long time before the old style conduit lending returns for the average small to medium sized project refinancing. It may be one year, but more likely it will be two or more years as the economy falters and the recovery remains muted. The lending infrastructure is obliterated with entire lending groups at major firms having been wiped out. That has to be rebuilt and there will need to be some changes to how it operates under Finreg. The rating agencies are still trying to figure out how they will rate the everyday conduit pool of properties.
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