Reading the Job Market: A Technical Note on the ADP and BLS Reports

As fundamentals and transaction values pull further away from underlying job growth trends, it becomes increasingly important for commercial real estate market participants to keep tabs on the latter. With July’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report less than two weeks away, the reliability of alternative metrics deserves some attention.

Primary amongst the non-government measures of monthly job creation, the ADP report has assumed a high profile in recent years. Released two days before its government foil – the first Wednesday of the new month – the ADP report covers changes in private payrolls, specifically. In the brief interlude separating the measures, the leading gauge influences many market analysts’ immediate expectations for the private component of the official payroll statistics.