Thank you for sharing!

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

First, the 321,000 new jobs reported by the BLS is off by about 100,000. It is unclear where and how the error occurred but a more accurate number is 225,000. That from a highly credible source who knows the numbers as well as anyone. Just look at the trend line and it is clear the November number is an anomaly. The real number is good, but there is still a very low participation rate. U6 is still about 300 basis points too high. Progress, but far from strong success.  The other good news is that there are beginning signs of some small wage increases, although not yet sufficient to make a material difference in spending. If nothing particularly bad happens for awhile, wages should start  to slowly increase. If oil stays low priced, and wages do inch ahead, that is all good news for consumers.  The offsets are healthcare just jumped due to Obamacare with the much larger deductibles plus on average 5% higher premiums. The other hidden issue is devices and internet bills. These have leaped in cost and for some families with teenagers it can be $400- $500 a month. That is way up from just a couple of years ago. We never understood that Face Book, Twitter and sexting would negatively impact consumer spending, but they do and noticeably. So don’t get all giddy over this last jobs report.  It is likely to be shown to have been materially over stated and 2015 will likely be another moderate growth year, 2 ¾%-3 ¼%.  Then there are all the new regulations that have been issued in the past couple of weeks including the war on coal and other EPA regulations that will raise costs. Financial regulations and fines are not yet over as now the NY AG wants to try to get publicity for his run for governor in four years. There are several cases now in or headed to the Supreme Court which will materially change or confirm the actions of Obama. Obamacare could get blown up but more importantly, the EPA is likely to be stopped from enforcing many of its new regulations depending on the coal industry suit headed through the courts. There is also the case where the issue of when is McDonalds a employer rather than a franchisor. Given all of this and the major weakness of the world economy, it is unlikely to see strong US economic growth and it is unlikely to see the Fed raise rates at all until Q3 and then only moderately. We have a long way to go before rates are back to historic norms.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 3 free articles* across the ALM subscription network every 30 days
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?


Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2020 ALM Media Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved.