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Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise the Federal Reserve’s target rate when it convenes in September—or will it delay until the year’s closing sessions in October and December? With unambiguous forward guidance, the answer to the question would be well understood. As it stands, the Fed has little incentive to make commitments that would impinge upon its flexibility in setting timetables. The imagined abstruseness of Fed officials’ statements has given rise to entire industry of contextualizes and soothsayers. 

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