One metric that Calkain uses to partially measure supply in the market is the change in average lease years remaining at the time of sale on a quarter-by-quarter basis. An increase means the mix of properties being sold is newer, which could be caused by several things, however in our experience it’s primarily due to new construction.

The chart below shows changes in the average number of lease years remaining at the time of sale by tenant category between Q1 and Q2 2015. Across all property types, the supply of newer properties appears to be flat, increasing a sparse +0.1 years. Certain sectors, however, experienced rapid change. Dollar Stores overall increased +0.9 years, and Dollar Generals specifically increased +1.5 years, driven by a surge in newly constructed properties coming to market. Pharmacies were down -1.5 years as new store development slowed for CVS and Walgreens and older Rite Aids comprised a larger portion of the sector.

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