It Is Almost As Good As It Can Get

If you add back the Toys R Us layoffs, the employment report was pretty much on target, and the prior months adjustments up made it even better than we thought. It is likely that unemployment will hit or better historic lows by October, wages are starting  to rise, oil prices are pretty steady and might decline a little, the dollar is up helping keep inflation down, and it is pretty clear the tariff battle with everyone except China will end by October, if not sooner. The EU is weakening even more, Mexico will make a deal in the next week or two, and Canada will follow. The EU will do a deal on autos along with Mexico and Japan and that will resolve the auto issue which is the big one. The EU now has no choice but to concede as their economy is weakening, Merkel is fading out, and there is political disruptions with the eastern nations going right wing, and Italy siding with them. The refugee issue is going to get much worse in Germany and in places like Netherlands, France and Belgium, and that is leading to more political problems. Those problems make it very hard for the EU to have a cohesive financial and economic strategy.  Add on Brexit, and Trump ramming them, and they will have to work it all out with Trump, and soon. By October there will be a deal and a new NAFTA. Likely there will be steel quotas and that will resolve that issue.

Even if the EU resolves the trade battle and Brexit, they are in real trouble. They just lost their chances for Iranian trade deals, and their budgets are still not under control. Merkel might remain in place for a while, but the old stability is gone, and that leaves Macron fighting for the lead, which he will not likely attain. All in, the EU will remain a weak and unstable place to invest. That means more investment dollars to the US. Latin America is no place to invest either. Asia and emerging markets may offer opportunities, but it is hard for the ordinary investor to go to these places without incurring big risks to their investment due to the corruption and very different way of operating in many places. Africa may be up and coming, but is not, for now, a place to invest for anyone but the people willing to take huge risks. Corruption is rampant and qualified governments is almost non existent there.