NEWPORT BEACH, CA—Pricing as measured by the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index was essentially unchanged in January, Green Street Advisors said Tuesday. The index, which measures values across five major property sectors, has declined by 1% over the past year, and was up 25.8% over the prior 2007 peak.
“Commercial property values have, for the most part, been steady, but performance depends on the type of property,” says Peter Rothemund, senior analyst at Green Street. “Industrial pricing continues to set new highs, while strip retail values have recently moved lower. Other property types are little changed of late.”
Industrial and strip retail were the only sectors in which pricing during January wasn’t essentially flat. Strip retail values declined by 3%, while those for industrial properties rose by 2%. Over a three-month period, strip retail pricing has fallen by 4%, while values for industrial rose by the same percentage.
Green Street data also show that industrial also posted the highest year-over-year gains, with pricing up 12% from January 2017. Conversely, another subsector of retail, mall properties, exhibited the biggest Y-O-Y drop at -11% from the year-ago period.
Aside from industrial, only a couple of niche categories outside of the five major food groups have shown much upward movement in pricing over the past year. The manufactured housing parks sector currently posts the highest index over the prior peak at 174, with values up 10% from 12 months prior. Student housing is also up 7%Y-O-Y, although pricing movement in the sector hasn’t changed much over the near term.
Using a different yardstick—repeat sales pairs—CoStar Group reported last week that pricing for commercial property continued to grow in ’17, albeit at a slower pace for a number of sectors. CoStar said its equal-weighted US Composite Index extended a streak of stronger growth with 12-month gains of 14.7% as the scope of the pricing recovery broadened across the property size and quality spectrum. The value-weighted US Composite Index also posted gains for ’17, albeit shallower at 5.7%.
All six of CoStar’s major commercial property-type indices, including those for land and hospitality, posted positive gains last year. This represented the sixth consecutive year of pricing recovery with positive gains across the spectrum.
As with Green Street’s CPPI, industrial took the lead in CoStar indices. The firm’s industrial index advanced 17.7% Y-O-Y, a growth pace that’s well ahead of the pace of 9.9% set by the index in the previous two years.
Conversely, although multifamily and office both posted gains Y-O-Y, CoStar data indicate continued deceleration in both sectors. CoStar points to rising levels of supply and already-high pricing as contributing factors in the slower pace of apartment price growth last year.
The US multifamily index was up by 8.5% for ‘17, and while that’s still a solid pace of growth, it represents a slowdown from the previous above-average pace of 14.1% set in 2015 and 2016. Tellingly, CoStar’s Prime Multifamily Metros Index was up by a slower 4.2% last year, suggesting weaker growth in high-value properties in primary markets.
Office pricing for ’17 ran on a parallel course to multifamily in one respect while diverging from it in another. CoStar’s US office index increased 5% Y-O-Y, amid a backdrop of steady occupancy rates and rent levels. However, that’s less than half the average growth rate of 10.2% achieved in each of the two previous years. Yet CoStar’s Prime Office Metros Index bested the national average for the sector, rising 8.4% for the year.