The area's low unemployment, around 2.2%, may eventually dampen economic growth in the region, he says. Still when the tallies are complete, it's expected that metro Denver's population has grown at 2.2%, more than double the US average of 1%. About 4 million sf of retail space has been started in the past 12 months, down 7.2% from a year ago.

An even more significant decline is expected this year, Osborne says. That's because of the recent completion of FlatIron Crossing Mall in Broomfield, which began in 1999 and added 1.5 million sf of retail space to the market when it opened in 2000. Osborne also says the high absorption rate will stabilize vacancy rates, which may even drop slightly in 2001.

The addition of 3.7 million sf of retail space in 2000 is only expected to have a slight increase in the vacancy rate, which he projects at 5.4%, up only 0.2 percentage points from 1999. This year, steady demand should bring it down to 5.2%.

One surprising finding was that although the number of retail sales increased in 2000, the total dollar amount declined 28%. That's because three regional malls had been sold in 1999 for about $105 million total or 53% of the total dollar volume. The year-to-date average sales price per sf of $76.26 in 2000 represents a 13.8% drop from the 1999 average.

In 2000, however, there had been 21 sales of properties built during or prior to 1970, with an average sales price of $58.85 per sf. By contrast, last year, only 16 properties from the 1970s had been sold.

Instant Insights /

Denver Retail Bracing for Slow, But Steady Growth This Year

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