Growth management efforts at the state, county and city levels are placing some locations out of the development arena in 2001. Continued multifamily construction, over and above the annual absorption numbers, is depleting available development sites. And several office and industrial developers already control large banks of dirt, waiting for the right marketing timing to break ground on new projects.

That's the gist of Grubb & Ellis' findings. Whatever quality sites will be found in 2001 will come at a premium, Grubb land specialist Keith Ray tells GlobeSt.com. Retail land sales, for instance, "are being skewed by the large number of retail out-parcel sales and tourist-related retail parcels that command premium prices," Ray says.

For example, average per-sf sales in 2001 for all retail was $11 per sf compared to an average $4 per sf for office and an average $1.80 per sf for industrial.

Apartment land sales based on per unit prices, however, are headed in the other direction. Including tax credit and market rate properties, Grubb & Ellis finds the average per-unit price in 2000 was $7,300. That's down from an average high of $7,380 in 1999, but up from an average $6,900 in 1998 and an average $6,800 in 1997.

Southeast Orlando and west Orange County will be the major new growth areas in 2001. "Infill locations will remain the holy grail for both single-family and multifamily developers," the broker predicts.

Population and jobs once again are fueling the demand side. Metro Orlando's 1.2 million population is projected to grow by 2.5% or 40,000 residents in 2001, the broker says. The four-county area is also expected to generate 31,200 new jobs. "Based on these numbers, strong demand for new construction of all types will continue," Ray tells GlobeSt.com.

Instant Insights /

Land Sales Market May Be Limited This Year Despite Strong Demand, Grubb Study Finds

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