"There are no signs of a real estate crash, not even in markets that are by every sane measure overbuilt," Livingston tells GlobeSt.com. "What is occurring is a soft economic landing on a sky-high plateau." He argues "neither the Dow Jones nor the S&P are down sharply."

Livingston spoke with GlobeSt.com after returning from London where he attended a European Real Estate Opportunity Fund investing seminar. The founder/president of Maitland, FL-based Realvest Partners Inc., he is also Florida chapter president of Paris-based FIABCI International, the world's largest corporate real estate network.

"The forces which most affect the market will remain in relative balance; rents will plateau for a while; demand for space will continue; and, in the short term, supply of new products will likely slow, but this is a positive effect," Livingston says. "There will be no real estate crunch."

A longtime real estate investor/developer and national seminar analyst, Livingston chides commentators by noting, "Yes, Virginia, there is a New Economy--and it's better than the old one." He says "sophisticated investors and developers are aware of this, of course, and realize that while the economy may cool in 2001, real estate will remain strong--the smartest ones are already preparing for the next surge in demand, which should be enormous."

He says, "the advantage of lengthy professional experience is a longer view and sometimes that longer view is at odds with prevailing sentiment." Livingsto notes "the current talk of recession, especially as it may or may not apply to the real estate market, and in particular commercial real estate development, marks one of those times."

The developer refers to ongoing comments by commentators and columnists on stock market declines and the demise of the high-flying days of New Economy dot-com companies. "The most civil word I can think of to describe such talking-head nonsense is 'claptrap,'" Livingston says.

The developer maintains that "despite what you may have heard on the news, the New Economy is not only alive, but it's livelier than the old economy by far--and the best is yet to come."

On the supply side, Livingston concedes lenders have begun looking more closely at location and costs but "their caution has restrained supply to realistic, not recessionary levels." He says, "In many areas, a lack of developable sites has also contributed" to a more cautious approach by lenders.

Lowering the interest rate will increase the money supply, lower development costs and, in some cases, make even marginal projects feasible," Livingston believes. "That hardly sounds like a recession."

On the demand side, the developer maintains the so-called crash of the dot-coms "has generated far more attention than it deserves in real estate circles." Livingston says dot-com companies represent only a small part of the commercial real estate market. "The quick demise of many high-flying and often ill-conceived dot-coms has generated sub-lease space in some markets, but hardly enough to increase negative growth," he says.

Despite the sudden absence of many dot-com firms, demand for commercial space "remains healthy in every major market in the United States and leasing activity is high," Livingston says. "Many old-style companies and service providers are expanding, and the growth of startup and fast-growth technology companies continues, if at a lower rate."

Compared to the economic downturn of 1968, 1974, the early 1980s and the late 1990s, "this one is very gentle," Livingston feels. "The economy, after all, is continuing to expand."

Instant Insights /

Livingston Calls Commentators' Recession Talk 'Claptrap'

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