The remaining participants are pretty evenly split between a "bumpy landing," in which growth slows to a below-average rate and then rebound to a sustainable pace, and a "soft landing," in which growth slows to a sustainable pace. To 49%, a bumpy landing is more likely, with 42% selecting the soft landing.

Falling interest rates from the Fed are credited with improved market conditions for debt financing, according to the survey. The debt financing index rose to 90 thisquarter, the highest reading since NMHC started the survey in July 1999 and much higher than the 6 recorded this time last year. An index reading above 50 indicates, that on balance, debt market conditions are looser while a reading below 50 means conditions are getting tighter.

Equity finance condition remains generally tight but show some signs of easing. With a score of 54 this quarter, this is the first time the equity financing index has exceeded 50.

Finally, the survey notes that conditions in apartment markets aroundthe country are starting to ease with a market tightness index dropping to 47.This suggests that, on balance, the economic slowdown is causing apartment markets around the country to get a bit looser, meaning rent increases are slowing and vacancies may be rising slightly.

"Apartments are well-positioned, even if the economy should slip intorecession," NMHC's chief economist, Mark Obrinsky, is reported as saying. "The slowdown recorded to date has had only a modest impact on apartment rents and vacancies. Apartment demand is strong, and should remain so as a result of favorable demographic trends."

NMHC's Quarterly Survey is conducted via e-mail and was sent the week of January 16-22 to the CEOs and senior apartment firm executives who serve on the council's board of directors and advisory committee; 77 members participated.

Instant Insights /

NMHC Finds Conditions Indicate US Will Avoid Recession, See Soft Landing

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