That's the assessment of John M. Crossman, senior vice president, director of retail services in the Orlando office of Trammell Crow Co.

"If a downturn were to cause fewer people to move here, we would definitely have a problem," Crossman tells GlobeSt.com. Small shop space at neighborhood centers is the gravest concern.

"Many small shop retailers are still mom-and-pop tenants who can be devastated by a downturn," the broker says. "For the last 15 years, Central Florida shopping centers have enjoyed a strong entrepreneurial base, meaning that we have a young active community filled with individuals who are interested in owning their own businesses."

He says, "This helps to drive overall retail developments but can quickly disappear if the economy goes south." Additionally, "existing businesses will stop expanding if there is uncertainty in the future."

But Crossman isn't totally convinced we are even having a downturn, locally at least. To support his thesis, he says, "first, we need to break down retail between neighborhood shopping centers and regional centers. Neighborhood shopping centers, anchored by a grocery store, are driven by the demographics in the local trade area which is about a two-mile radius."

He says a typical neighborhood center needs about 10,000 residents in a trade area for support. The Economic Development Commission of Mid-Florida Inc. estimates 1,300 new residents move to Central Florida each week.

"This means that Central Florida has the demand for a new neighborhood shopping center approximately every eight weeks," Crossman tells GlobeSt.com. "As long as new residents move in, we will have the demand for new grocery stores."

Instant Insights /

Downturn Would Ruin Mom-and-Pops, Says Broker

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