"There's still a lot of demand out there. It's softening, but there's still a lot," Karl Almstead, vice president of Dallas-based Turner Corp., tells GlobeSt.com. In fact, the industry's indicators are such that the nation's sliding economy might turn out to be just "a blip" on construction's radar screen, particularly if Alan Greenspan comes through with another interest rate cut. "We're not really in a slow period yet. 2001 is probably going to be a good year for most construction companies.... It's positive because there's still a great deal of demand," Almstead emphasizes.

Construction's lag time is due to the amount of time it takes from conception to dirt pushing. For most, the contracts are signed and building plans are proceeding, Almstead says. Predicted upswings for the fourth quarter could be construction's saving grace, giving enough time between now and then to reduce the hit on the industry at large. He says there isn't any deja vu of unfinished buildings and halted highway projects. "Will one be stopped, sure," he says. "Which one? I don't know. Will two? Maybe... but once the train gets going, it usually keeps going."

There's not enough data for a Doomsday prediction right now as to just how hard construction could be hit if a full-scale recession comes into play. "There's enough to say things are slowing down. There's not enough to say that there's going to be a recession in the construction industry," he says.

Turner's quarterly forecast shows construction costs have escalated 0.66% in first quarter 2001 over the 605 points recorded in fourth quarter 2000. The index had been 599 in third quarter 2000. What that means in dollars and cents is a $50-million project in the first quarter is costing $330,000 more than it did at year's close. In the long-term analysis, costs had been climbing 2-1/2 points to 4-1/2 points. "It's still climbing, just at a slower rate," he says.

Meanwhile, major metropolitan areas remain brisk with construction activity and manpower in the trades remain strapped. The cooling down is coming in secondary cities, but Almstead is reluctant, like others, to pin that label on a specific location. Suffice it to say, it's slowing in some regions. Office construction is flat in most areas due in part to the dot-com shakeout, save for New York City. And, says Almstead, it looks like it might stay that way for the next couple of quarters. Industrial remains the hot ticket, pretty much across the board. As for the hotel market, well, Turner analysts right now are trying to weigh the trickledown impact on building plans. As everyone knows, travel expenses are the first to go in corporate cutbacks, dealing an unavoidable heavy blow to the hotel industry and often sidelining projects.

Turner's cost index doesn't necessarily reflect regional conditions although it's used extensively by all, including Federal and state governments, to track cost and price trends. It factors nationwide basis-labor rates and productivity, material prices and competitive conditions of the marketplace. And, says the Turner team, it does not always conform to other published indices.