He disputes the over-development thesis at regional shopping centers by pointing out the metro area has been averaging about 800,000 visitors a week, bringing the 1.5 million population number to 2.3 million. "That brings our retail square-foot per capita much closer to the national average," Crossman tells GlobeSt.com.

Additionally, he notes the over-development charge "doesn't take into account that tourists typically spend a great deal more in a week's vacation compared to a resident." He says, "This is a strong reminder of how important tourists are to the local retail economy."

The worst-case scenario may be occurring as he speaks, Crossman acknowledges. "If, during a downturn, the amount of tourist (dollars spent) decreases dramatically, or if Disney continues its trend of keeping more and more tourist dollars on Disney property, we will have some significant challenges."

Crossman tells GlobeSt.com, "The most likely scenario is that tourist numbers would decrease slightly, increasing the competition in the tourist corridor." He says, "Older centers and mom and pop businesses would be hurt the most."

And that market-softening effect may be showing up at metro Orlando cash registers later this summer as Walt Disney World acknowledges its hotel and meetings bookings are down and that it is beginning to lay off 2.5% or 1,400 salaried but not hourly employees from its 56,000 person staff at the Lake Buena Vista, FL theme park. Disney is Central Florida's largest employer.

Besides the tourist factor, two other crucial elements that need to be watched over the next several months are the movement of anchor tenants and the entrance of high-end retail, Crossman tells GlobeSt.com.

"As competition increases, standard sizes change and older concepts fall into bankruptcy, we will have a surplus of 25,000-sf to 100,000-sf vacant boxes," he predicts. "This could be a real challenge." But the good news, he adds, is that many of the newer national retail concepts haven't arrived yet in Central Florida, while other retailers still need to expand.

"If the economy does not dip too much, many of these boxes should be backfilled," Crossman says. "It will be a problem only if retailers decide to wait on expanding into our market."

He notes Park Avenue in suburban Winter Park, International Drive in south Orlando and the Florida Mall near Orlando International Airport are all welcoming tenants with high-end goods. The 1.3 million-sf Mall at Millenia housing big-dollar stores such Bloomingdale's, Macy's and Neiman Marcus is scheduled to open in 2003.

"Can Orlando, the discount destination of the world, handle this large an influx of high-end supply?" Crossman wonders. "How will these retailers do if they enter the market during a significant downturn?"

The broker concludes, "Only time will tell."

Instant Insights /

Broker Raises Three Caution Flags on Area's Retail Sector

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