One major reason is that the slowdown nationally and in the Carolinas has come so quickly and without warning that it has not had an adverse impact on planned projects, Shoesmith says.

"The word is out in Charlotte that all this huge push towards commercial construction and all the new high-rises are going to play themselves out in the next couple of years, and there's not that much planned on the horizon after that," a factor that will allow the new inventory time to be absorbed, he says.

In one measure of economic health, Shoesmith foresees job growth slowing in both North and South Carolina. He thinks North Carolina's job growth of 2.6% last year will slow to 1.7% this year, while South Carolina, which grew by 2.1% in job growth last year, will fall to 1% this year. He envisions that rate rising to 1.9%, however, in 2002.

"South Carolina is in far better shape than North Carolina," he says. "Even though South Carolina's economy is roughly half the size of North Carolina, and while they've lost some jobs in manufacturing and textiles, they've added in areas such as auto parts."

Shoesmith notes, "They've been able to fill in the missing pictures with finance, real estate, retail and other business."

South Carolina's manufacturing jobs pay $3 an hour less on average then North Carolina, which helps counter wage inflation, Shoesmith says.

"The Greenville-Spartanburg area is also red-hot," he says. BMW's plant there has helped create demand for auto related suppliers. "They've also been building highways and widening lanes and so forth, in an area that is close to Charlotte," the economist points out. Greenville and Spartanburg are about 75 miles southwest of Downtown Charlotte.

Nationwide, the sagging stock market and lower consumer confidence could indicate a recession is near, but Shoesmith thinks that is not likely.

"The fact is, there is no real trigger for a recession," he says. "For example, compared to the summer of 1990, there is no military conflict like the Gulf War to demoralize consumers, no banking and savings and loan crisis, no severe commercial overbuilding, and no mountain of business debt brought on by takeover fever, such as in the 1980s."

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Construction Will Ride Out Slowdown, Economist Predicts

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