Land transactions are at a $44 million-per-year level versus a record $67 million in 1999. An Orange County moratorium on new projects braked numerous proposed developments and put many land deals on hold in 2000. The county is holding back building permits on any project proposed for an area where adequate schools and infrastructure aren't in place.

But the new Grubb & Ellis study suggests multifamily development opportunity still exists in metro Orlando even as the inventory rises by 40% to 137,000 units from 98,000 units in 1995. There are 127,000 units occupied and 10,000 that are vacant.

But the average annual absorption of 6,144 units over the past five years is healthy when compared to an annual average construction of 6,522 units over the same period, the report suggests. For example, G&E land multifamily specialist Keith Ray tells GlobeSt.com: "Any project beginning the entitlements process in first quarter 2001 will not deliver its first units to market until the second half of 2002 when the market should be strengthening."

Despite softening office and retail markets, Ray feels "a well-executed apartment community in the right location seems to do well in almost any market conditions. At 93% occupancy, Orlando is not exactly a soft market."

Still, the broker is concerned with the sizzling Lake Mary/Sanford submarket where seven projects totaling 2,526 units are expected to surface within the next 18 months. That volume is one third of the total 7,692 units planned for all of Central Florida.

"Incredibly strong growth (in Lake Mary/Sanford) is not yet reflected in the absorption of apartment units," Ray tells GlobeSt.com. Nevertheless, he thinks that submarket, along with the rest of the metro area, "will be buoyed by a rapidly declining supply of affordable land, continued strong employment growth and an increase in retail and entertainment support services."

Among the newly planned apartment complexes is a 439-unit building in the Kissimmee/Four Corners area of Osceola County by Pritzker Residential of Chicago and a 254-unit Downtown structure by Charlotte-based Bank of America, ONIC and locally based Hughes Supply Development.