"The Dallas-Ft. Worth independent living sector has experienced growth at a healthy pace and most new projects have filled rapidly," says Charles Bissell, Integra's managing director of the Dallas office. The first-time study includes analyses of the seniors housing supply, demographics and overall market conditions for independent living, assisted living and nursing care. Researchers have focused on Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties.

Although results vary widely among the four counties, the dynamic growth in the market is a constant. Integra estimates total growth in households headed by a person over 75 will hit 17.7% by 2005. Denton and Collin might be setting the growth pace, but North Dallas has the highest income level and South Dallas, the lowest, a finding in keeping with other conditions for those particular markets.

Collin and west Tarrant counties lead the pack for the highest independent living occupancies. Those looking to build should consider South and North Dallas, where there is an unmet demand, Integra concludes. Bissell says "independent living is a private pay market and operators tend to develop properties in higher income areas." There are two projects under way in Dallas County's southern tier that will help ease the demand. Bissell says a successful launch is sure to draw others to that sector.

Assisted living and nursing expenses are not faring as well. "We foresee continued woes in the assisted living sector for the next year or so," Bissell says. "While demand for assisted living is increasing and occupancies are slowly rising, it may be a case of too little too late for some operators."

The region's 90% occupancy is 1.5% lower than the nationwide average. A number of factors have 21% of Texas nursing home facilities now in bankruptcy, according to Integra. That is twice the rate nationally. Bissell says a handful of facilities have sold for less than half of the construction costs "just a few years ago." Integra expects the shakeout to continue for the next few years, but considers it "necessary for the market to return to a healthier status."