In January, Angelou had presented his annual economic forecast to more than 1,175 people. But there have been significant market changes since then and Angelou says a review is in order.
Austin's real estate market, Angelou tells GlobeSt.com, "has seen the brunt of the consequences" of the downturn in the technology sector. He still expects 25,000 new jobs to come on line this year, but that number is 1,000 less than the previous year. He says job growth will be more in the neighborhood of 3% instead of the 3.7% that he predicted in January. It had been 5.2% in 2000.
And, he says, be prepared for more sublease space to hit the market. In the first quarter, Austin brokers have differed on the amount of sublease space that has opened up, but most have placed it above one million sf.
In January, Angelou had predicted office occupancy to dip to the low 90s. In an exclusive interview with GlobeSt.com, he is now calling for office occupancy to drop to 90% or "maybe a tad lower." With that will come a rent decline. "Certainly the market, in my opinion, could use lower rents," he says. Angelou says a rent correction of 10% is a real possibility.
Nonetheless, Angelou says "the economy is still growing and the employment market is still growing." He remains optimistic that the Austin economy will turn around come midyear and if it doesn't then he will once again revisit his predictions. That midyear breaking point is a favorite of economic forecasters nationwide. But Angelou plans on standing watch on the Austin market well beyond midyear. And rightfully so since he has been a key player for two decades to establish the state capital as a leading "technopolis." Twenty years ago, Austin had a population of 345,000 whereas today it's about 1.2 million and gaining.
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