On one side of the negotiating table is the Writers Guild of America, whose union members write everything from Jay Leno's jokes to top-rated TV dramas and big-budget movies. On the other side is the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents most of the nation's television-production companies and movie studios.

Their current contract expires at 12:01 tomorrow morning. The two sides have been meeting for months in an effort to hammer out a new agreement, but remain far apart on several issues. Key sticking points include payments that writers receive when their work is rerun on cable TV and in foreign markets, and how much should be paid when a show or movie is sold on video.

Producers are also trying to reach agreement with the Screen Actors Guild and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, both of which have threatened to strike if new pacts can't be reached before their current contracts expire in coming weeks. Some SAG and AFTRA members say they won't cross picket lines if the writers strike tomorrow.

The "ripple effect" of a strike by any of the unions would idle tens of thousands of workers in the entertainment business. A special study ordered by Mayor Richard Riordan says LA County alone could lose 81,900 jobs and $6.9 billion in income if writers and actors strike this year.

Even scarier, some local economic experts say the report prepared by the always-optimistic Riordan grossly underestimates the number of jobs that would be lost-and thus underestimates the impact a Hollywood strike would have on a Southern California economy that is already reeling from cutbacks in its Internet-related technology sector. Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. chief economist Jack Kyser recently estimated that a strike would cost the county's economy about $507 million a week, which works out to more than $2 billion every month.

Instant Insights /

It's 'D-Day' in Hollywood, and SoCal's Economy Could be Bloodied

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