"They projected that DeKalb County through the year 2005 would have the lowest retail growth of all the metro areas," David Seamon tells Globest.com. "We're aware that it's only a signal, but it's telling us we're a mature area."

DeKalb was projected to grow less than 9% in retail sales over the next five years, while other areas such as Gwinnett and Fulton counties were expected to have retail sales growth of more than 37%.

DeKalb, with a present population of about 660,000, has been growing at a rate of up to 3,500 new residents a week.

"We're suffering from sprawl at a level as great as Los Angeles," he says. As a result, "People are moving out farther and farther from the edges of the city."

Atlanta's metro area is generally considered to be seven counties that include DeKalb, much of which is a part of Atlanta proper.

The county is about to get a major retail boost, however, with the opening next October of its first major shopping center--the Mall at Stonecrest on I-20.The 1.2 million-sf facility is a joint venture partnership of Forest City Enterprises of Cleveland and Fairview Properties of Atlanta.

The mall has already spurred single and multi-family housing, medical offices and an AmeriSuites Hotel, among other developments.

"I don't think retail will come to a halt now, but I don't think it will continue in the pace that it has," Seamon says. He is concerned about the slowdown in retail because with the county's tax structure, it is heavily reliant on businesses such as retail to pay much of the move-in costs associated with new residents.

Seamon believes future retail will continue to sprout up farther and farther from DeKalb because it is what he terms a "mature county" with a lot of existing development. "Mature counties like DeKalb have to wait until at some point people start returning to the city," he says.

Commercial activity has been strong in office and industrial, and Seamon expects that to continue. Land prices for industrial and commercial properties are attractive, starting as low as $10,000 an acre, and often going no higher than $75,000.

Seamon believes even better investment opportunities may be found in DeKalb's blighted or depressed areas, some of which may be ripe for commercial activity. "There are many cases where these areas are wonderfully located, and they are often undervalued," he says.

Instant Insights /

Retail Growth Projected to Slow in DeKalb County

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