But for office and retail, "there's a lot of hesitation," he says. "The financial markets are turning them away."
Jeska's office, which recently completed a generally rosy study of the area's apartment market, does not track hotels, but that real estate segment, in common with office-retail, has clearly not been hot with lenders.
"Reports from Smith (Travel Research of Tennessee) and others are all saying occupancy levels are way down, and daily rates have dropped," says Jeska.
Millichap's latest office and retail studies are due out soon, but an apartment report released in March reached conclusions that do not seem to have changed since then, Jeska says.
"We may have seen a 25% to 30% difference in increased sales, but it's like one of the brokers in our office says--not much happens in the apartment market when the economy is stable, but when there's a downturn or an upturn, that's when activity takes place," he says.
The Millichap apartment report notes that after "five years of incredible expansion," the Atlanta region should have more moderate growth this year. The report found nearly 50,000 new multifamily units built in that time period, with many apartment owners converting units to for-sale condos.
That conversion pulled several thousand units off the rental market and drove up prices.
"With slower growth and fewer condominium conversions expected this year, prices are likely to become more realistic, reflecting true market conditions and opening the door to greater investment potential," says the report, written by Jeska.
One of the most promising areas for apartments continues to be Midtown, despite significant construction. Rent growth should be above the area's average, the report says.
Rent growth last year was 3.4%, a figure expected to decline somewhat this year to 2%. Another report highlight found the 6.8% vacancy rate of last year should only rise to 7% in 2001.
Another 11,000 apartment units are expected to come on line this year. "Vacancy is forecast to rise slightly and rent growth will decline," the report says.
Considering those factors, the report predicts owners can expect appreciation of about 3%.
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David Wilkening
David Wilkening began his long journalism career as a police reporter for Chicago-area newspapers. He became a writer-editor for major newspapers in Chicago, Washington, Detroit and Florida. He has been a business editor, political editor and travel editor for newspapers and magazines. He tried for a while to be a political operative but did better as an adjunct college professor teaching English and journalism. He is the author of several books, both ghost-written and under his own name. He is also a widely published freelance writer who currently lives in Orlando.
