ORANGE COUNTY-Although the cooling of the national economy and the statewide energy crisis may somewhat slow Orange County's economy, a 2.7% job growth is predicted for the region in 2001, according to a recently released economic forecast published by California State University in Fullerton.

Unemployment in the county is at a level 2.4% rate for the first quarter, down from 2.5% for the year 2000. However, the forecast predicts that unemployment will continue to grow in the second and third quarters, as Orange County's economic pattern will probably follow that of the slowing national economy. “There is a lag of three months between what is happening nationally and what is happening here,” says Dr. Anil K. Puri, the director of the Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies at Cal State Fullerton, who worked on the forecast.

However, Puri says that Orange County's economic losses will be smaller than those on the national level. “This is due to the diversity of Orange County's economy,” he tells GlobeSt.com. He likens the three sectors of the region's economy; high-tech, construction and tourism; to “the three legs of a stool.” Therefore, although the high-tech sector is being battered, the steady performance of construction and tourism will balance out the losses.

The tourism and construction sectors are expected to dip somewhat in the months ahead, but construction should be helped by the high demand for housing, according to the forecast. “The housing sector of the real estate market seems to be doing okay,” Puri tells GlobeSt.com. “Construction provides a major boost to employment in the county and right now, all segments of real estate are not doing too badly,” he adds.

Growth rates of GDP, income and employment are expected to decline in the next two quarters, according to the forecast. “However, I don't see a recession occurring,” Puri tells GlobeSt.com.

Instant Insights /

Job Growth Will Continue, Despite Economic Slowdown

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