"The recovery will be pretty soon, but the pain will be there for the next six months," Dhawan says in a report from his office.
Metro Atlanta will add only 28,000 jobs this year, less than half of last year's total. Unemployment will rise to 3.3% from 2.8% in 2000. And with fewer unemployed, the commercial real estate market will be impacted.
Personal income growth should slow from last year's hot 8.6% to a far more modest 5.4%, the economist predicts. The local economy will show signs of recover in late fall or winter, Dhawan says. One positive factor, he notes, is the Federal Reserve Bank's cutting the interest rate.
On the plus side, Atlanta is not facing the power problems abundant in California. In addition, the area is not home to many high-technology companies, which makes up less than 8% of the state's economy.
The dot-com falloff will hit Atlanta's finance sector the hardest with a 4.5% job loss, Dhawan says. The manufacturing and construction sectors are also expected to suffer. Real estate will see signs of growth, but slower than in the past, he predicts.
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David Wilkening
David Wilkening began his long journalism career as a police reporter for Chicago-area newspapers. He became a writer-editor for major newspapers in Chicago, Washington, Detroit and Florida. He has been a business editor, political editor and travel editor for newspapers and magazines. He tried for a while to be a political operative but did better as an adjunct college professor teaching English and journalism. He is the author of several books, both ghost-written and under his own name. He is also a widely published freelance writer who currently lives in Orlando.
