Given the magnitude of the lodging downturn--which was already in the works, thanks to a softening economy--the possibility of a midyear 2002 recovery is very good news. And that's exactly what respondents to our latest Quick Survey are telling

Most participants (21%) predict that RevPAR for upscale, full-service hotels will bottom out by Q2 of next year, while slightly less (20%) say the sector has already hit bottom. Q3 of next year is cited as the turnaround quarter by 17% of the participants while Q1 is the target bounce for 16%. Some 15% think that the recovery will start no sooner than 2003, while 11% are waiting for next year's fourth quarter.

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John Salustri

John Salustri has covered the commercial real estate industry for nearly 25 years. He was the founding editor of, and is a four-time recipient of the Excellence in Journalism award from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.