The projected construction total for the year 2001 represents the first annual decline in the past nine years when the 1993 recession low totaled $38.84 billion (adjusted for inflation). That nine year period also charted a 71% increase in employment in the construction sector, from 445,700 in 1993 to an estimated record average of 762,100 in 2001. This denotes a 316,400 monthly job increase during the nine-year period.

The forecast for 2002 is not rosy. Total construction is projected at $57.45 billion, down $4 billion from 2001, a 6.6% decrease, according to Ben Bartolotto, director of the CIRB. He estimates a further dip in 2003, to $57.32 billion, down 0.2% from 2002.

While all construction sectors, both private and public, are predicted to feel the crunch forecast by CIRB in 2002, it is in commercial and industrial building feel the blow hardest. Nonresidential building is estimated to collapse by 10.4% to $15.05 billion. That is $1.75 billion less than the $16.80 billion CIRB is estimating for private nonresidential volume for all of 2001. That total by itself is a 12% fall from 2000.

Public works construction, which covers heavy-highway and public buildings, is expected to decline 7% in 2002 to $15.21 billion and by a slight 0.5% in 2003 to $15.13 billion. According to Bartolotto, the figures reflect an expected drop in new private power plant starts and a decline in government building construction.

If there is a positive to pull from this data, the public works construction was the only sector to show a gain in 2001 totaling an estimated $16.35 billion volume, up 5.8 percent from 2000. Heavy and highway construction is estimated at $9.78 billion, up $260 million or 2.7% from 2000. This jump is due to an increase in power plant construction starts.

Instant Insights /

Construction Suffers First Lull in 9 Years

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