Jeff Eisenhardt tells GlobeSt.com that there are several factors that could cause the setback: increased interest rates, stringent underwriting, fewer new jobs, higher capitalization rates and increased expenses resulting from higher taxes and insurance. Naturally, there's the uncertainty of the world marketplace, from local and national economies to the prevailing intense conflicts in the Middle East and Asia.
Eisenhardt, echoing insurance analysts, says rates are doubling across the board, sometimes even tripling for apartment properties. He attributes the rising cost of insurance in Houston to the anticipated litigious atmosphere caused by mold cases and claim losses from Tropical Storm Allison.
On the lenders' side, stringent underwriting practices are now requiring actual income reporting instead of pro-forma income, Eisenhardt reveals. And, he says, "they are now making sure expenses are in line with the market, especially real estate taxes and insurance."
Interest rates increases of about 50 basis points in recent months are further adding to the problem, says Eisenhardt. Rates now are hovering at 7.25% as opposed to 6.75% earlier in the year. He expects interest to rise as the year plays out.
Eisenhardt says the "fly in the ointment" will come if the economic recovery that has already begun suddenly hits the market. In his opinion, a strong recovery by summer will drive up treasury rates and interest rates and serve to lower land values. "Many sellers are taking advantage of the current market and selling their assets now prior to the market changing," he explains.
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