The Top 10 Trends were the focus of a recent report by Colliers International's national research director, Ross J. Moore. Just how did Houston fare? Davidson's point-by-point response is:
1. Occupancy levels continue to drift lower across most markets. False.
2. Office rents maintain downward trend. False.
3. Sublease space is a major factor in many markets. True.
4. Job losses remain a dominant theme in the economy. True.
5. "See through" buildings spotted in select markets. False.
6. Pendulum has swung firmly in tenants favor. False.
7. Landlords fight to maintain occupancy. True.
8. Flight to quality versus flight to value. True.
9. Leasing market characterized by small tenants. True.
10. Owners/investors remain confident of office real estate. True.
Davidson tells GlobeSt.com that rents have not been significantly lowered in Houston. The Colliers national report puts Houston's CBD class A asking rate up 10.7% from fourth quarter 2001. Davidson believes rates have remained somewhat flat with the average CBD rental rate at $23.86 per sf and $27.83 per sf for class A space.
Building owners and tenants, Davidson says, remain far apart when it comes to space rates. "The tenants read about Enron, Compaq and Continental Airlines and believe that translates into deals," he says. Likewise, Davidson confides that landowners look at the trends and say "we have had one bad quarter, but the market is stable."
It's true that rent concessions, i.e. one or two months free rent or higher TI dollars, are being offered in the marketplace. But, Davidson stresses, "they aren't slashing their rates." Many building owners are sticking to their asking rents amid the awkward times of mismatched expectations. But, they aren't ignoring the need to aggressively wheel and deal in order to maintain occupancy via early renewals and slight concessions.
In the sublease sector, Davidson calculates class A CBD space, which accounts for most of the market's sublease space, is going for a 15% to 25% markdown, depending upon critical factors such as the remaining length of the lease.
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