Rudin's remarks were delivered at a New Jersey real estate market forecast program, co-sponsored by Insignia/ESG and KPMG last night at the Pleasantdale Chateau here. The program also included: KPMG tax partner Fred James, who discussed changes in New Jersey's corporate tax laws; a presentation on corporate real estate strategies by Insignia/ESG senior managing director Linda Dow; and a keynote address by former Honeywell chairman/CEO Larry Bossidy.

Despite the "worse off" space availability situation, Rudin was quick to point out that it's unlikely the market "will go over the cliff" this time around. Back then, he recalled, it was a market characterized by "auctions, major job losses, big concessions, cheap rents and a quick bottom. That was a real estate 'depression.'"

"In terms of job losses alone," he continued, "we lost 250,000 jobs last time, compared to 'only' 35,000 this time. And according to a new report from the Bloustein School at Rutgers, New Jersey gained 10,000 jobs last month. That's very heartening-if it's true."

Rudin offered several other reasons why things are different this time, including lower interest rates ("money is pouring into real estate"), the amount of sublet space ("landlords are dealing with a lower percentage of direct space"), and changes in ownership ("the shift from private to institutional ownership has created more stability").

Conceding that there is a continuing lack of demand for space, a reluctance by companies to spend money and the specter of sublet space turning into direct space, Rudin said that, "employment growth is the only way out. At least 50,000 jobs are needed to return the market to balance."

He predicted that job growth would come primarily from business services, healthcare, computer services/software and pharmaceuticals/biotech, and that it would happen "by the fourth quarter of next year."