Relatively healthy GDP growth of 2.5% to 3% is currentlyexpected for 2003. This is in line with the long-term growth ratefor the US economy but well below the historical 5% in the fourquarters coming out of a recession. Strength in retail sales andhousing throughout the recession, spurred by historically lowinterest rates and availability of capital, has left little pent-updemand to boost the recovery. At the same time, the business sectoris still struggling to recover from the late '90s investment andstock-market bubbles.

Just as important, the shadow of uncertainty is making corporateCEOs cautious. The possibility of war, further terrorism, globaltensions and corporate scandals are the main culprits. As a result,employment growth will likely remain weak through mid-2003,particularly since companies need to post sustainable profitimprovement before investment and hiring can resume.

Record refinancing in the third quarter of 2002, relatively lowunemployment and income growth should work to avoid a double-diprecession, but the recovery will remain muted and the risk ofrecession will be heightened for the next several months.

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Hessam Nadji

Hessam Nadji is president and chief executive officer of Marcus & Millichap, a leading commercial real estate firm specializing in investment sales, financing, research and advisory services. Founded in 1971, Marcus & Millichap has grown to more than 1,700 investment sales and financing professionals with offices throughout the United States and Canada. In 2016, the firm completed 8,995 transactions with a sales volume of over $42 billion. Mr. Nadji joined Marcus & Millichap in 1996 as vice president of research and advisory services and positioned the firm as a leading provider of market trends, analyses and expertise. Over the years, his role expanded to include marketing and strategy, enabling him to play a key role in establishing and growing Marcus & Millichap’s national brand. In 2010, Mr. Nadji assumed the leadership role for all of the firm’s national specialty brokerage divisions, which grew rapidly under his supervision. Marcus & Millichap’s specialty divisions function as client service teams of specialists with in-depth expertise in 12 real estate segments and achieved sales of $21.5 billion in 2015. Mr. Nadji also played a leading role in the preparation and execution of the firm’s IPO in 2013 as Marcus & Millichap’s chief strategy officer. He was named president and CEO in April 2016. Mr. Nadji is frequently sourced on behalf of the firm by national business media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, Real Estate Forum, CNBC, Fox Business TV, Bloomberg TV, and numerous commercial real estate publications. Prior to joining Marcus & Millichap, Mr. Nadji was senior vice president at Grubb & Ellis, where he began his career in 1986. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in information management and computer science from City University in Seattle. Mr. Nadji is a member of the National Multi Housing Council executive committee, the Urban Land Institute, the International Council of Shopping Centers and NAIOP.