Uncertainty dominates the office outlook, stated I/ESG vice chairman John Powers. "In fact," he said, "I can't recall a time when more uncertainty existed." The growing specter of war certainly is a major contributor to that uncertainty, he said, a prospect that keynote speaker Dr. Henry Kissinger would later warn the roughly 1,000 attendees that they should bank on. (If there was good news in the former Secretary of State's predictions, it was in his belief that any conflict would last only a matter of weeks).

But while we wait for international affairs to come to a head, the local office sector stumbles its way through what Powers called a "new, evolving context since Sept. 11, 2001. The office market is best seen as an aggregate measure of the many businesses that function here, and we are all wondering when conditions will turn."

That turn may actually come this year, he projected, but with only minor upticks in leasing expected in all but the Downtown submarket. It will be a long haul before the market can claim stability, given the current availability of 45 million sf. By contrast, he noted, "In a balanced market, 28 million sf is available."

Nevertheless, the projected activity is at least a straw at which to grasp. Midtown's 2003 velocity should hover around 11 million sf as opposed to last year's 9.6 million. Midtown south should post some 4 million feet of deals, up from '02's 3.7 million. By contrast, Downtown will slip to 5 million sf from last year's 5.6 million feet.

Furthermore, Powers projected, conditions over the coming decade will continue to underscore that "new, evolving context," and the office market will be saddled with such ongoing hurdles as a reluctance on the part of corporate tenants to spend money; pricing inefficiency as building owners seek different financing objectives; and an extension in the time it takes to do a deal.

While the office sector labors to shake off its uncertainty, the multifamily market "is stable," proclaimed Insignia Douglas Elliman chairman and CEO Geoff Wharton. Sale prices did slip a bit in Q4, by 3.4%, but this compares to a 4.8% drop in the prior quarter. There has been growth in activity for smaller apartments--those under $1 million--attributable to that subsector's "sensitivity to the interest-rate environment."

Wharton also noted that the number of sales dipped as well, but only to historical norms, and over the past two years the market logged an average of 2,055 deals per month.

In all, while the office sector continues to struggle under the burden of uncertainty, the only slight dips in the multifamily sector and its return to historic norms led Wharton to proclaim that on the residential side at least, "the glass is half full."