For market statistics, Stephen Jenco, the firm's client services manager in New Jersey, explained that an increase in demand for office space combined with a drying up of sublease space had lowered class A vacancy from 26% two years ago to 22% now. And while absorption remains positive, more recently it has been "slow and less than anticipated. But there is little speculative development, so don't expect new product to overwhelm the market."

On the industrial side, availability is holding steady at 8%, said Jenco, adding that while there have been some consolidations, "big-box demand has largely nullified it." He also forecast more construction: "That has been a prevalent trend--lots of new construction, including speculative."

For retail, the state's population density and wealth is "good news. Many national retailers have been coming into the market or expanding their presence." Jenco also said the electronics category is particularly hot.

And for investment sales, "the market should remain active." One possible change: "As interest rates rise, private investors will be less active and institutional investors and REITs more active," he said.

For the larger economy, Dr. James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, said, "the US is firmly back in the job-creation business." He also explained that while there is momentum entering 2005, "growth might be slower. It's a natural part of the economic cycle."

As to New Jersey, "the economy didn't fall out of bed. It has already recaptured the jobs it lost during the recession, and then some," he explained. "The state is outperforming the national figures." Indeed, the state has already set employment records, and Hughes indicated most of the growth was coming from education, health services, business services, construction and finance.

Mitchell E. Hersh, president/CEO of Mack-Cali Realty Corp., agreed that, "New Jersey is resilient." And while some fear the impact of SBC's acquisition of AT&T, one of the state's largest employers, "I feel it will add jobs to the state ultimately, after an initial shakeout."

Among other trends, said Hersh, are "corporate dispersal-the distribution of the workforce within the region, which will be positive for New Jersey in terms of jobs moving here from New York." He also predicted that pharmaceuticals, life sciences and biotech would continue to create jobs.

"I am more than cautiously optimistic. I see a very bright future," Hersh concluded.

From the corporate standpoint, Dennis Bone, president of Verizon-New Jersey, said that in the wake of the SBC/AT&T deal, "the industry is in a tremendous convergence. I see a lot more mergers." He also said, "the voice companies are losing out" to the digital companies. "We are investing a lot more in fiber networks right now."

Bone also indicated that Verizon-New Jersey is hiring right now, but "we're seeing labor issues, it's hard to fill these positions." And while he had no news about where Verizon will consolidate its headquarters operations, "I am optimistic about New Jersey for this." While the Verizon banner will stay in New York, New Jersey and Virginia are vying for the bulk of the landline and wireless headquarters operations.

Dennis Donovan, a principal of WDG Consulting, a corporate location advisory firm, wasn't necessarily as optimistic. "From a public policy standpoint, New Jersey has one of the poorest business climates in the country. How long can we live off the expansion of the industries already here? The state doesn't promote itself.

"Maine spends $2 million a year to promote itself, but New Jersey spends almost nothing," Donovan continued, adding that South Jersey in particular "is being overlooked."

Donovan also asserted that the state, with its interminable regulatory apparatus, "has to rectify permitting without affecting the public good." Finally, he urged state officials to "beef up business retention efforts," and predicted that New Jersey's so-called "millionaire's tax" could drive top execs and their companies elsewhere. "This state ranks absolutely last in tax policy."

Instant Insights /

Grubb & Ellis Panel: Market is Sending Mixed Messages

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