Think the housing bubble is a term used only by the uninformed? Last week's GlobeSt.com Feedback Poll tells us differently, with more than 60% of respondents labeling it Reality and only 40% calling it Myth. Of course, the nuances of the issue demand a closer look. And commentator Obrinsky fills in the details below on the slump in housing--and how the commercial sector can only gain as a result.

"Talking about bubbles with home pricing can be misleading. We typically talk about bubbles in things like stock markets and tulips. Housing is a different world. In my mind, the question is: have home prices advanced too fast, too quickly, and if so what does that mean going forward.

"It's probably true that in some markets, home prices have gotten a little ahead of themselves. In those cases, we're likely to see much flatter appreciation and even a retreat of prices.

"In terms of impact, there are a couple of things going on. The first is that, in the first five years of this decade, the rapid price appreciation was to a large extent offset by declining mortgage rates. Consequently, the measures of housing affordability looked quite good. However, for the past year, year-and-a-half, that's no longer the case and we continue to see home prices up pretty high but mortgage rates going up. So, even if nothing else happens, that's going to put a lot of people back into the rental market who might have hoped to be buying a house. On top of that, home-buying was a good investment vehicle as well as a place to live, and if that should come to an end that's also going to detract from the appeal of buying a single-family house. It will add to a pick up in demand for apartment residences as an alternative.

"We're already seeing this happen to a small degree. Look at first-quarter figures for some of the apartment REITs, and you'll see a lot of the operating-income numbers are looking pretty good. They're starting to project earnings for the rest of the year that are higher than what had been said before, and this is coming from a base of stronger fundamentals--more demand for their apartment units and rents firming up.

"We're beginning to see it, but in the next three to six months we'll know if this is turning into a stronger tide or not."