Comments by:
Steve Pumper
Executive Managing Director
Investment Services Group, Transwestern

Respondents to last week's Feedback Poll weighed in on their predictions as to whether or not 2007 will be a year of buys, holds or sales. The clear winner in their estimation, with 54% of the vote, was buy. Hold came in second with 26%, followed by sell, which pulled 20% of the vote. Commentator Pumper explains his view of the coming year:

"Over the past four or five years, we've seen much shorter holding periods, and that will have a key impact on the buy, hold sell equation this year. I'm seeing a lot of money coming from the coastal areas into the central part of the country and the Sunbelt, because you're getting improving fundamentals in those regions. Even though cap rates have decreased there, they're still appreciably higher than in the New York City; Washington, DC; or California marketplaces.

"If you've bought in the past two or three years and your hold period at the time was three to five, you're obviously a candidate for a sell, given the amount of capital that continues to pursue real estate. Given the cost of capital, you can lock and load and leverage the cost of your capital. It's still at arguably historic lows.

"I'm not seeing a shift in terms of geography, but I am seeing a product shift. We're hearing concern among retail owners. If you don't have the top one or two grocers in your marketplace, a category killer such as a WalMart or a high-end grocer such as Whole Foods, you're starting to see a concern about consumer spending and a drop-off in volume in strip centers. Cap rates are starting to edge up a bit more there than in other product types. I don't know if this is a temporary scenario or longer term. Obviously retail has always been a high priority for any institutional portfolio, and it's still highly sought-after. But at this point people are concerned that consumers are burned out. They've lost their ability to treat their homes as personal ATMs and the cost of gas has started to take the steam out of the market."

"In my estimation 2007 will be another extremely strong year for investment in all asset classes throughout the county. The combination of institutional capital, foreign investors and private owners will keep prices at or near record highs. The critical question will be who will supply the product investors will purchase. I believe that if you're a net seller you'll benefit."

Instant Insights /

Buy, Hold, Sell in '07?

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