Mark Zandi
Chief Economist
Economy.com
If you imagine a tug of war between the public markets and the private side, the private side is clearly winning. If you have any doubt, just do a mental scroll through the REITs that have been taken over and out of the public domain. Some 41% of the respondent's to last week's Feedback Poll said that it would be at least two years before the pendulum swings back to public. Private prominence won't go away, said 37%, and 22 think the market will shift within two years. Commentator Zandi falls in with the majority, and he explains why:
"I took the poll and voted for two or more years before the pendulum swings back. The forces at work for private ownership are firmly in place. The pendulum will swing back, but it will take some time.
"The costs of being a publicly traded company have risen considerably in the wake of the tech bust and the increase in regulatory and legal oversight. Sarbanes Oxley is symbolic of that. That's layered a significant amount of cost on top, and that is, in part, behind this move.
"In general, senior management of publicly traded companies are a bit tired of the short-term focus on investors and Wall Street analysts. This very senior group spends a significant amount of time communicating with Wall Street and investors and often feel their message isn't getting through. They want their horizon to be longer-term than the next two quarters.
"At the same time the cost of private ownership has remained low and it looks increasingly attractive. Primarily, this is because interest rates have remained low, there is so much capital available and spreads off of risk-free assets are extremely low. If you're thinking about taking a company private there's no better time.
"It's also clear that institutions--both here in the US and globally--are shifting their allocation toward real estate, and institutional investors feel they get higher returns if they do it through a privately held vehicle. They have more latitude and control and they can take a longer-term perspective. Investing through a privately held firm allows them to capture more of what they expect to be very high returns.
"So, all of these forces have come together, and they are firmly in place. There are things that could derail all of this, but those are things that have low probabilities. Investing through a privately held firm will remain the more popular vehicle, at least for the next couple of years."
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