For the past several years, China has been the hot place to gofor opportunity investors. All the major investment managers havelured institutional money into the emerging economic goliath. Nodoubt the arguments seem compelling for China continuing to growinto a dominant power over the next quarter century. Unprecedenteddevelopment builds out and modernizes the country's cities andentirely new urban areas mushroom as rural populations move toindustrial job sites. An evolving middle class moves into high riseapartments and shops in new shopping centers. Office buildings popup to accommodate commercial expansion and more hotels are neededfor all the offshore visitors -- business and tourist. Beijing getsa total facelift for the upcoming Olympics. The powers that be alsofund massive infrastructure projects -- a highway network, theequivalent of the US interstate system, has been built in just thepast decade; mass transit facilities, high speed rail lines, andstate-of-the-art airports start operations.
But recent news out of China should make investors wonderwhether the growth track won't hit some bumps. Last week's pre-NewYear snow storm crippled the country. Several factory buildingscrumpled under the weight of snow, raising questions aboutconstruction quality. The government grudgingly admits it mighthave made a mistake with Three Gorges Dam and resultingenvironmental damage. Air and water pollution creates dangeroushealth conditions in much of the country -- about 50% of thecountry's vast population does not have potable water. The U.S.Olympic team will ship in food for its athletes, fearing that highsteroid levels in local meats could trigger doping failures.Marathoners worry about noxious Beijing air quality. Manufacturersmanage to ship overseas everything from tainted tooth paste tounsafe cancer drugs. Who knows what the locals are ingesting andbreathing. And more than 300 million Chinese are smokers. Oh,probably no surprise, the government runs the cigarette franchise.In short, it would be charitable to say the country seems to playfast and loose. You could wonder how transparent the growth numbersare and whether they are sustainable. I do.
Add on: Talking about trends -- Will Hillary win anotherprimary? The Obama Mo steadily builds. She pins her hopes on"firewall" Ohio and Texas primaries in early March. But if Barackwins everything between now and then, as appears increasinglylikely, Mrs. Clinton may be dead in the water. Remember just beforeSouth Carolina three weeks ago, she had a 20% lead in some nationalpolls. Don't bet on the Dem decision going all the way to theconvention.
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