Recent headlines keep our trends barometers heading down:

"Fed lowers growth forecast": These announcements have become seemingly weekly events as Fed policymakers do the limbo -- how low can they go without saying the economy has entered a recession. Right now they don't have much room to work with -- the bar looks awfully close to the floor at their predicted 1.3% annual growth rate.

"Oil Prices Close Over $100 a Barrel": No surprise that oil prices keep edging ever higher, but the increases continue to pinch hardhit consumers, who deal with a 4.3% increase in consumer prices over the past 12 months.

"That 70's Look: Stagflation": Analysts start to worry about that CPI rise in a stagnating economy, and the need to raise interest rates to get inflation under control. While short-term the stock market lives off of rate cuts and the credit markets continue to seek relief in liquidity, the long-term impacts on economic growth and the need to increase interest rates suggest unpalatable scenarios.

"Writedowns Continue": Every day or so another bank announces a new set of writedowns. As we have noted, subprime was a convenient whipping boy and just part of a larger problem, precipitated by laissez faire lending across the capital markets spectrum. And commercial real estate still waits its turn to take some hits.

"More Housing Defaults, Prices Sink": Wasn't it about a year ago the various realtor trade organizations were confidently predicting a housing rebound by this winter? Now recoveries have been pushed out to two and three years. Gloom has enveloped hope.

"Obama Wins": But hope for change and its possibilities keep winning in the current election campaign. The national mood may be the biggest indicator out there that trend lines haven't bottomed. Change (better times) hasn't happened yet so people transfix on hope.

Instant Insights /

Headlines Point in Wrong Direction

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