"One of the positive things about the credit crunch is we gotmore educated on the economics. It's now common knowledge that twoconsecutive quarters of negative GDP is a recession," said JohnLeonard, vice president, regional manager at Marcus &Millichap. "Are we going to see that? I'm not sure but obviously weare in a slowdown." He added that we'll probably see at least onequarter of negative GDP, impacting office, industrial andretail.

A time out is how Todd Yates, senior vice president of the AlterGroup, described the current market. "I think we are in a time out.The game hasn't been going real well. Nobody is really sure what todo. We're not ready to throw in the towel and say the game isover," he explained. "We hope when the time out is over things willbe back like they used to be." He added that among the negativesigns are positive one as well, but the biggest thing right now isthe uncertainty.

More than just a slowdown, Warren Sander, vice president ofColonial Properties Trust, does say the R word out loud. "I thinkclearly we are in a recession," he said. "But what is interestingin the multifamily sector among the REITs and the Southeast is thatfundamentals are remaining very strong. We are seeing effectiverent growths and occupancy holding strong, if not improving, wheneveryone out of the gate thought the first quarter [of 2008] wouldbe very tough. It has not really played out that way."

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.