WHAT LESSONS HAVE YOU LEARNED?

Cycles Rule! Despite the widespread belief, born of therecent high-times, that commercial real estate was no longercyclical--or only mildly so--respondents to last week's Quick Pollapparently weren't fooled. Some 75% of the 304 voters believe thatthe current slump will Teach Us That Cycles Always Rule. Another23%, possibly taught caution by the lousy market, cautiously statethat It's Too Early To Tell. Only 2% think that we'll come out ofthis recession-or-not Bulletproof. Richard Davidson, president andCOO of Parsippany, NJ-based Coldwell Banker Commercial/OncorInternational, has lived through a downturn or two, and he has hisown thoughts on the subject. Here they are:

"If you look at cycles back to the early 1970s, we run on a10-year cycle: five years of growth and expansion followed by twoto five years of some sort of transition. What's different fromwhat I have seen in other cycles is that you have the value sideand the fundamental side, and they're not running together."Thevalue cycle actually accelerated beyond the fundamentals cycle. Asa result--and clearly it's a matter of availability andaffordability of debt capital that has reduced the number ofbuyers--there's less competition for quality assets, which meanslower pricing pretty much across the board.