A leading real estate consultant who tracks appraisal trendsdoesn't see net operating incomes increasing enough to supportexisting values. This company expects cap rates to move up andvalues to head down give or take 15% before bottoming. That's notterrible given the significant increase in prices over the pastdecade. But again, for the late buyers and their lenders, it's notwhat they were betting on.


A pension fund advisor with ample funds to allocate says they'rehaving trouble finding deals. Sellers are holding out for topdollar, while buyers see the writing on the wall (see above). "It's hard to get anything done. Sounds like what was happening inthe housing market about 12 months ago before reality set in.


An executive from a major financial company says borrowers aregetting leeway: "A lot of people owning loans don't want the assetsthat are underwater so we are forebearing." The absence ofheadlines about owner defaults speaks to how many lenders and theirborrowers are working in frenzied states to stay of out of thenewspapers. "I hope I can survive, " says one bleary-eyedbanker.


If you are interested in finding out more about the sorry stateof American infrastructure, you can link into the report I authoredfor the Urban Land Institute. Click here and you will findlink on the Miller Ryanhomepage. It's called Infrastructure 2008: CompetitiveAdvantage and is available in hard copy through ULI.


And last week I was giving some developers a hard time. Here's aproject in downtown Denver, 1800 Larimer, that feeds into thecity's resurgence and reinforces both the city and state's push forreducing the region's carbon footprint. (Note Miller Ryanrepresents Westfield).

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.